[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 220227
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

MULTI-CHANNEL IR IMAGES CLEARLY SHOWS THE EYE OF JEANNE AND ALTHOUGH
THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. MAXIMUM WINDS AREA
KEPT AT 80 KNOTS BUT A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE
INTENSITY OF JEANNE IN A FEW HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS...THE SHEAR OVER JEAN IS CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST AND
UNANIMOUSLY ALL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
JEANNE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR JEANE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
DURING THAT PERIOD...AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWARD OR ABOUT 175 DEGREES AT 3
KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK SO...JEANNE
WILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A
RATHER LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY FORCE JEANNE TO MOVE ON A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK. JEANNE SHOULD THEN TURN NORTHWARD NOT TOO FAR FROM THE U.S
EAST COAST AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS RATHER CLOSELY. THERE IS A LITTLE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST NOW THAT THE GFS HAS JOINED THE
REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL IN MOVING JEAN WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD.  THE LATEST SCENARIO IS A LITTLE MORE OF A THREAT
FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/0300Z 27.0N  68.7W    80 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 26.8N  68.9W    80 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 26.5N  69.0W    80 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 26.5N  69.5W    85 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 26.6N  70.5W    85 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 27.5N  73.0W    85 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 29.5N  75.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     27/0000Z 32.1N  76.0W    60 KT


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