[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 191414
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/09.  KARL IS MOVING SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE COLD LOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A TRACK AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION IN FORWARD
SPEED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE COLD LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE EYE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS
EMBEDDED IN A PERSISTENT COLD CDO FEATURE.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 115/102/102 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC AND THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 110 KT.  THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES 15 KT
OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS 10 KT UNDER
LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FOR 10 MORE KT...BUT THE WIND SPEED COULD CERTAINLY GO
HIGHER.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/1500Z 16.4N  42.9W   110 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 16.8N  44.3W   115 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 17.7N  46.1W   120 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 18.9N  47.3W   120 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 20.6N  48.4W   120 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 25.4N  48.9W   115 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 32.5N  46.0W   105 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 41.0N  42.0W    90 KT


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