[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 181419
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10 ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL
WHICH BECOMES ERODED BY 72 HOURS FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

KARL IS LOOKING GOOD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED
EYE AND BANDING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/90/77 KT FROM
TAFB/SAB/KGWC.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT.  CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS
AFTER WHICH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL
EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      18/1500Z 15.2N  39.3W    90 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.1N  40.7W   100 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.1N  42.9W   110 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 17.9N  44.7W   115 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.0N  46.5W   115 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 21.8N  48.0W   110 KT
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 27.0N  48.0W   105 KT
120HR VT     23/1200Z 34.0N  45.0W    90 KT


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