[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 172043
SPFAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  71.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST MON SEP 20 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

22.0N  74.0W      57  X  X  X 57   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  2  5  7
23.7N  74.7W      23 15  X  X 38   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  1  6  7
25.8N  74.7W       X 21 10  X 31   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  1  5  6
MUGM 200N 751W    13  1  X  1 15   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  5  5
MUCM 214N 779W     X  3  1  1  5   JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  4  4
MDPP 198N 707W    99  X  X  X 99   SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  4  4
MBJT 215N 712W    54  X  X  X 54   CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  6  6
MYMM 224N 730W    50  X  X  X 50   MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  7  7
MYSM 241N 745W    16 19  X  1 36   WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  7  7
MYEG 235N 758W    13 20  X  X 33   MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  7  7
MYAK 241N 776W     X 13  5  X 18   CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X  5  5
MYNN 251N 775W     X 11  9  1 21   NORFOLK VA         X  X  X  2  2
MYGF 266N 787W     X  1  8  5 14   FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  2  2
MIAMI FL           X  X  1  4  5

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN
C FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
D FROM  2PM SUN TO  2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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