[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 170829
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  70.1 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST MON SEP 20 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

21.3N  72.5W      52  X  X  X 52   MIAMI FL           X  X  1  9 10
23.0N  74.0W      12 27  X  X 39   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  1 10 11
25.0N  75.0W       X 21 11  X 32   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  1 10 11
MDSD 185N 697W    99  X  X  X 99   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  9  9
MTPP 186N 724W    11  X  X  X 11   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  7  7
MTCA 183N 738W     1  X  X  1  2   JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  4  4
MUGM 200N 751W     5  7  X  1 13   SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  3  3
MUCM 214N 779W     X  1  3  2  6   CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  4  4
MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  X  2  2   MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  3  3
MDPP 198N 707W    99  X  X  X 99   WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  3  3
MBJT 215N 712W    53  X  X  X 53   MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  2  2
MYMM 224N 730W    37  5  X  X 42   KEY WEST FL        X  X  X  3  3
MYSM 241N 745W     1 31  2  X 34   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X  5  5
MYEG 235N 758W     X 25  4  X 29   FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  5  5
MYAK 241N 776W     X  4 12  3 19   VENICE FL          X  X  X  3  3
MYNN 251N 775W     X  2 16  3 21   TAMPA FL           X  X  X  3  3
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  7 10 17   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  2  2
MARATHON FL        X  X  X  5  5

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SAT TO  2PM SAT
C FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN
D FROM  2AM SUN TO  2AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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