[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 170828
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

BECAUSE THE CENTER IS INLAND NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE DID NOT PENETRATE THE EYE FEATURE BUT IT
MADE A RADAR FIX INSTEAD. THE CREW REPORTED THAT THE EYE WAS
CIRCULAR AND ROUGHLY 15 N MI IN DIAMETER. SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER
THE ECLIPSE SUGGEST THAT JEANNE IS NOT AS STRONG AS A FEW HOURS AGO
SINCE THE EYE FEATURE CAN NOT LONGER BE OBSERVED AND CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED. THIS WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND WAS
ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS KIND OF SURPRISING THAT JEANNE HAS
KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN AFTER BEING OVER LAND FOR A
ABOUT A DAY. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 55 KNOTS
BASED ON A MAX WIND FROM THE RECON OF 63 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT
JEANNE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH HISPANIOLA FOR 12 MORE HOURS AND IF
SURVIVES...IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS AS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT IS GOOD TO POINT OUT THAT...HISTORICALLY...
NOT MANY TROPICAL CYCLONES SURVIVE THE PATH ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF HISPANIOLA.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY STEER JEANNE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT
5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND PARTIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN...WILL FORCE JEANNE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHWEST. IN 4 OR 5 DAYS...THE TRACK
FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL BECOME REPLACED BY A RATHER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH EVENTUALLY WOULD FORCE JEANNE WESTWARD.
THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION WHAT PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
MAY BE THREATENED BUT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH RISK ALL
THE WAY FROM FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/0900Z 19.5N  70.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N  70.9W    55 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 21.3N  72.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 23.0N  74.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 25.0N  75.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 27.0N  76.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 28.5N  77.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     22/0600Z 29.5N  80.0W    85 KT


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