[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 170231
SPFAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  59
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

35.9N  83.1W      43  X  X  X 43   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  2  2  4
36.0N  81.4W      23  1  1  1 26   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  1  2  3
35.3N  81.0W      17  3  1  1 22   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X  2  2
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  X  2  2   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X  2  2
MIAMI FL           X  X  X  2  2   FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  3  3
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X  3  3   VENICE FL          X  X  X  3  3
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  1  3  4   TAMPA FL           X  X  1  3  4
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  1  4  5   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  2  4  6
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  2  5  7   ST MARKS FL        X  1  1  5  7
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  1  4  4  9   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  1  4  5
SAVANNAH GA        1  5  4  3 13   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  1  4  5
CHARLESTON SC      1  6  4  3 14   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  4  4
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  6  4  3 13   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  3  3
WILMINGTON NC      X  4  4  4 12   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  2  2
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  2  3  4  9   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  1  3  4
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  1  2  3  6   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  3  3
NORFOLK VA         X  1  3  4  8

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7PM FRI TO  7AM SAT
C FROM  7AM SAT TO  7PM SAT
D FROM  7PM SAT TO  7PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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