[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 161133
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST THU SEP 16 2004

...JEANNE BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE 6TH OF THE 2004 SEASON...NEAR
THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM LA PLATA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA
SAONA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF PUERTO
PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE CRISTO. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO
A HURRICANE WARNING LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA
WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DOPPLER RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO
INDICATE THAT JEANNE HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST...OVER THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA OR CABO
ENGANO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.  A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS JEANNE HUGS THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. CABO ENGANO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 56
MPH...91 KM/HR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65
KM FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF  985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE SUBSIDING ALONG THE COASTLINE OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE DAY.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
MORE THAN A FOOT OF RAIN...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...WITH NAGUABO IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND HAVING
RECEIVED MORE THAN 20 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVER PUERTO RICO.  MANY RIVERS ON PUERTO RICO ARE ALREADY AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...18.7 N... 68.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

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