[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 160853
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 16 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  68.1 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST SUN SEP 19 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

20.4N  70.9W      44  X  X  X 44   MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  8 10 18
21.2N  72.6W      18 12  1  X 31   MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  7 11 18
22.3N  74.2W       X 20  5  1 26   MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  1 14 15
MDSD 185N 697W    36  X  X  1 37   MARATHON FL        X  X  X  8  8
MDCB 176N 714W     2  1  X  1  4   MIAMI FL           X  X  X 11 11
MTPP 186N 724W     9  3  1  1 14   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X 11 11
MTCA 183N 738W     1  4  2  1  8   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X 10 10
MKJP 179N 768W     X  X  X  3  3   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  9  9
MKJS 185N 779W     X  X  X  3  3   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  6  6
MUGM 200N 751W     X  9  5  2 16   JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  3  3
MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  5  8 13   SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  2  2
MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  X  7  7   KEY WEST FL        X  X  X  6  6
MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  X  3  3   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X  7  7
MDPP 198N 707W    45  X  X  X 45   FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  7  7
MBJT 215N 712W    32  2  1  X 35   VENICE FL          X  X  X  5  5
MYMM 224N 730W     3 24  1  1 29   TAMPA FL           X  X  X  4  4
MYSM 241N 745W     X  6 15  3 24   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  3  3
MYEG 235N 758W     X  4 15  4 23

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM FRI TO  2PM FRI
C FROM  2PM FRI TO  2AM SAT
D FROM  2AM SAT TO  2AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER JARVINEN


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