[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 160847
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  56
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

THE EYE OF IVAN CROSSED THE COAST AROUND 0700Z JUST WEST OF GULF
SHORES ALABAMA AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY NOW IS 100
KNOTS AND BECAUSE IVAN IS ALREADY INLAND...FURTHER WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WELL INLAND...UP TO ABOUT
150 MILES ALONG ITS TRACK.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER....IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE BLOCKED BY A DEVELOPING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS IVAN
STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN
THAT AREA.  OBVIOUSLY THIS COULD BE A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN THE COMING DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/0900Z 30.9N  87.7W   100 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 32.5N  87.2W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 34.7N  86.2W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 36.0N  85.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 37.5N  83.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 37.5N  83.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 36.5N  83.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING



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