[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 160848
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  56
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

34.7N  86.2W      52  X  X  X 52   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  X  3  3
36.0N  85.0W      25  3  X  X 28   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X  2  2
37.5N  83.0W       1  9  6  2 18   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  1  2  3
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  1  2  3   ST MARKS FL        X  1  1  2  4
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  2  3  5   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  1  2  3
SAVANNAH GA        X  1  4  3  8   PANAMA CITY FL     X  1  1  2  4
CHARLESTON SC      X  1  3  4  8   PENSACOLA FL      99  X  X  X 99
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  3  5  8   MOBILE AL         99  X  X  X 99
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  2  5  7   GULFPORT MS       27  X  X  1 28
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  1  4  5   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  1  1  2
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  1  3  4   GULF 29N 87W      19  X  1  X 20
NORFOLK VA         X  X  1  4  5

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1AM FRI TO  1PM FRI
C FROM  1PM FRI TO  1AM SAT
D FROM  1AM SAT TO  1AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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