[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 160726
HLSTLH
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ700-
750-755-770-775-161000-

HURRICANE IVAN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

...A HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WEST TO
GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA EAST TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...AND FROM
APALACHICOLA EAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND THEN SOUTH TO YANKEETOWN
FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...AND GADSDEN...LEON AND LIBERTY COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM
EDT (1000 AM CDT) FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
AND MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 300 AM EDT (200 AM CDT)...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST...OR
NEAR THE ALABAMA COASTLINE. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13
MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE
INLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
130 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IVAN
MOVES FURTHER INLAND. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. MANY SCHOOLS...BUSINESSES...STATE AND COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE
CLOSED TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE
LATEST CLOSINGS...STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF IVAN
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG
BEND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY 5 TO 10 INCHES CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF IVAN OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
WITH LOCAL 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION...MAIN
STEM RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK. RAINFALL FROM
TROPICAL STORM FRANCIS GENERATED ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ON THE FLINT
RIVER AND KINCHAFOONEE AND MUCKALEE CREEKS. RAINFALL FROM FRANCIS
MOSTLY MISSED THE CHATTAHOOCHEE...PEA...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...
APALACHICOLA...AND CHIPOLA RIVER BASINS...WHERE FLOWS ARE STILL
RELATIVELY LOW. IVAN WILL BE ARRIVING WHILE FLOWS ARE STILL
RELATIVELY HIGH ON THE FLINT RIVER BASIN. THIS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE
MONITORING AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RISES.
HOWEVER...THE FOLLOWING BASINS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY
IVAN.

IN ALABAMA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVER BASINS.

IN GEORGIA...THE FLINT RIVER...KINCHAFOONEE CREEK...AND MUCKALEE
CREEK.

IN FLORIDA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...CHIPOLA...AND
OCHLOCKONEE RIVERS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...THE C TOWER 15 MILES SOUTH OF ST GEORGE ISLAND IS
REPORTING WINDS OF 42 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 48 KNOTS. THE OFFSHORE GULF
BUOYS HAVE OBSERVED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS.

REPRESENTATIVE WINDS AT SOME INLAND AND COASTAL LOCATIONS...
CEDAR KEY...24 MPH...GUSTS 29 MPH.
KEATON BEACH...26 MPH...GUSTS 31 MPH.
SHELL POINT...24 MPH...GUSTS 41 MPH.
TALLAHASSEE...24 MPH...GUSTS 44 MPH.
APALACHICOLA...30 MPH...GUSTS 43 MPH.
DOTHAN...18 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS IVAN ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE EARLY THIS MORNING. IVAN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS
IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. ON THIS
TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND
FROM THE GULF COASTAL WATERS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 50
TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...TORNADO THREAT...
ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
BEND.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...

SURGES WILL RISE TO AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET WEST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND...
AND 6 TO 8 FEET EAST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES OF 20 TO 30 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. STORM SURGES AND
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS IVAN MOVES FURTHER INLAND TODAY.

LOCAL TIDES FOR TODAY...

EAST PASS NEAR DESTIN...
LOW TIDE...933 AM.

SAINT ANDREW BAY NEAR PANAMA CITY...
HIGH TIDE...1152 PM.
LOW TIDE...702 AM.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDE...524 AM AND 608 PM.
LOW TIDE...1224 PM AND 1156 PM.

SAINT GEORGE ISLAND AT SIKES CUT...
HIGH TIDE...426 AM AND 510 PM.
LOW TIDE...1024 AM AND 1034 PM.

OCHLOCKONEE BAY...
HIGH TIDE...416 AM AND 441 PM.
LOW TIDE...1015 AM AND 1024 PM.

SHELL POINT...
HIGH TIDE...340 AM AND 405 PM.
LOW TIDE...953 AM AND 1002 PM.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE...343 AM AND 408 PM.
LOW TIDE...956 AM AND 1005 PM.

...RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES DUE TO INCREASED WAVE ACTION AND LARGE
SWELLS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AROUND 530 AM EDT.

$$

MAJ
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