[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 160650
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 55B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN ABOUT TO CROSS THE ALABAMA
COASTLINE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST
OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN
FLORIDA.

AT 2 AM CDT...0700Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS CENTERED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST...VERY NEAR THE
ALABAMA COASTLINE.

IVAN IS MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE ON THE COAST
SHORTLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
INLAND. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED AT THE
SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A
30-STORY BUILDING.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD INLAND UP TO
ABOUT 150 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

PEOPLE ARE STRONGLY ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT FROM SHELTER DURING
THE CALM CONDITIONS OF THE EYE...AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING WHEN THE EYE PASSES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 290 MILES.  THE PENSACOLA NAVAL AIR STATION RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 98 MPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS  943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
OCCURING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER IS MAKING
LANDFALL. THE PENSACOLA TIDE GAGE JUST REPORTED A STORM SURGE OF 6
FEET AND RISING.  LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL
BE EXPERIENCED WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA...
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AREA...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 2 AM CDT POSITION...30.2 N... 87.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

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