[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 160559
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST THU SEP 16 2004

...JEANNE NEARING HURRICANE INTENSITY...LOCATED IN THE MONA PASSAGE
BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM LA PLATA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA
SAONA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF PUERTO PLATA
WESTWARD TO MONTE CRISTO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  67.8 WEST OR ABOUT
35 MILES... 55 KM...EAST OF CABO ENGANO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE FORECAST MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF JEANNE NEAR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JEANNE IS STRENGTHENING AND WILL LIKELY BE A HURRICANE LATER
THIS MORNING.  A HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN SUBSIDING ALONG THE COASTLINE OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE DAY.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
MORE THAN A FOOT OF RAIN...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...WITH NAGUABO IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND HAVING
RECEIVED MORE THAN 20 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVER PUERTO RICO.  MANY RIVERS ON PUERTO RICO ARE ALREADY AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO.

REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...18.6 N...67.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN


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