[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 160004
HLSTLH
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ700-
750-755-770-775-160230-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IVAN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
804 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

...A HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WEST TO
GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA EAST TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...AND FROM
APALACHICOLA EAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND THEN SOUTH TO YANKEETOWN
FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 3 AM EDT (2 AM CDT) FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 PM EDT (6 PM CDT)...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS CENTERED
NEAR 28.8 NORTH LATITUDE...88.2 WEST LONGITUDE...OR ABOUT 105 MILES
SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE OR
HIGHER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. IN ADDITION...MANY SCHOOLS IN THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BE
CLOSED ON THURSDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE
LATEST CLOSINGS...PLEASE LISTEN TO LOCAL TELEVISION AND/OR RADIO
STATIONS.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEGUN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
FLORIDA BIG BEND. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY 5 TO 10 INCHES CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF IVAN
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...WITH LOCAL 3 TO 6
INCH AMOUNTS FURTHER EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW
LYING AREAS...AND NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION...MAIN STEM
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK. RAINFALL FROM
TROPICAL STORM FRANCIS GENERATED ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ON THE FLINT
RIVER AND KINCHAFOONEE AND MUCKALEE CREEKS. RAINFALL FROM FRANCIS
MOSTLY MISSED THE CHATTAHOOCHEE...PEA...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...
APALACHICOLA...AND CHIPOLA RIVER BASINS...WHERE FLOWS ARE STILL
RELATIVELY LOW. OF SPECIAL CONCERN IS THAT IVAN WILL BE ARRIVING
WHILE FLOWS ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH ON THE FLINT RIVER BASIN. THIS
WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RISES. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE FOLLOWING BASINS
COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY IVAN.

IN ALABAMA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVER BASINS.

IN GEORGIA...THE FLINT RIVER...KINCHAFOONEE CREEK...AND MUCKALEE
CREEK.

IN FLORIDA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...CHIPOLA...AND
OCHLOCKONEE RIVERS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...THE WINDS AT TOWER C 15 MILES SOUTH OF ST. GEORGE ISLAND
IS REPORTING WINDS OF 39 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 44 KNOTS. THE OFFSHORE
GULF BUOYS HAVE OBSERVED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO
55 KNOTS.

REPRESENTATIVE WINDS AT A FEW COASTAL SITES...
CEDAR KEY...15 MPH...GUSTS 17 MPH.
KEATON BEACH...12 MPH...GUSTS 14 MPH.
SHELL POINT...16 MPH...GUSTS 36 MPH.
APALACHICOLA...23 MPH...GUSTS 41 MPH.
PANAMA CITY...22 MPH...GUSTS 33 MPH.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE LANDFALL OF IVAN IN THE VICINITY
OF MOBILE BAY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER. ON THIS
TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
SPREADING OVER THE PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND COASTAL PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND DURING THIS TIME. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE STRONGER RAIN
BANDS. PANAMA CITY CAN EXPECT 15 TO 20 HOURS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...DOTHAN CAN EXPECT AROUND 15 HOURS BEGINNING THIS EVENING...
AND TALLAHASSEE CAN EXPECT AROUND SEVEN HOURS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

...TORNADO THREAT...
TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE BIG BEND IN THE OUTER
RAIN BANDS OF IVAN.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...

THE STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 8 FEET WEST OF ST GEORGE
ISLAND...AND 4 TO 6 FEET EAST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND TONIGHT. SURGES
WILL RISE TO AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET WEST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND...AND 6 TO
8 FEET EAST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND THURSDAY. LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES OF 20 TO 30 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF ST
GEORGE ISLAND.

LOCAL TIDES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

EAST PASS NEAR DESTIN...
HIGH TIDE...1236 AM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...859 PM THIS EVENING AND 933 AM THURSDAY.

SAINT ANDREW BAY NEAR PANAMA CITY...
HIGH TIDE...1206 AM AND 1152 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...628 PM THIS AFTERNO0N...AND 702 AM THURSDAY.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDE...524 AM AND 608 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...1134 PM TONIGHT...1224 AM AND 1156 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT GEORGE ISLAND AT SIKES CUT...
HIGH TIDE...426 AM AND 510 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...1012 PM TONIGHT...1024 AM AND 1034 PM THURSDAY.

OCHLOCKONEE BAY...
HIGH TIDE...416 AM AND 441 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...958 PM THIS EVENING...1015 AM AND 1024 PM THURSDAY.

SHELL POINT...
HIGH TIDE...340 AM AND 405 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...936 PM THIS EVENING...953 AM AND 1002 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE...343 AM AND 408 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...939 PM THIS EVENING...956 AM AND 1005 PM THURSDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL EXIST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES DUE TO INCREASED WAVE
ACTION AND LARGE SWELLS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AROUND 930 PM EDT (830 PM CDT).

$$

MAJ

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