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WTNT34 KNHC 152255
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  54A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IVAN BEARING DOWN ON NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST
OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN
FLORIDA.

AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS CENTERED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES
SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE VERY LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT IVAN
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE
OR HIGHER. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED AT THE
SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A
30-STORY BUILDING.  AFTER LANDFALL... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD
TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 150 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

PEOPLE ARE STRONGLY ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT FROM SHELTER DURING
THE CALM CONDITIONS OF THE EYE...AS WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING WHEN THE EYE PASSES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 290 MILES.  SUSTAINED WINDS OF 51 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 63 MPH WERE
RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE DAUPHIN ISLAND C-MAN STATION.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS  931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.  SOME
TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 6 PM CDT POSITION...28.8 N... 88.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

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