[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 152212 CCA
HLSMOB
ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-160100-

HURRICANE IVAN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
510 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN MOVING CLOSER TO THE ALABAMA COAST...
...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... AND
ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN
FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND
OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 PM CDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.6 N AND LONGITUDE 88.2 W...OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND ALABAMA.  IVAN WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF MOBILE BAY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WHICH MAKES IVAN A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE.  WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR...IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THESE EXTREME WINDS
WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE AREA.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EVACUATIONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MOBILE BAY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL CAUSE A STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FT  ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ALABAMA COAST...WITH A SURGE NEAR 16 FT
POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER PART OF MOBILE BAY.  FLOODING OF DOWNTOWN
MOBILE FROM THE MOBILE RIVER WEST TO BEYOND BROAD STREET IS
POSSIBLE.  MUCH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL BE FLOODED...AS WELL AS MUCH
OF THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA.  LESSER BUT STILL SERIOUS STORM SURGE
FLOODING WILL ALSO OCCUR IN GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH ALONG THE
ALABAMA COAST...AND  FROM PENSACOLA TO DESTIN IN THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE A STORM SURGE NEAR 10 FT IS POSSIBLE.  WITH
REGARD TO ESCAMBIA BAY NEAR PENSACOLA...A GENERAL 4 TO 6 FT SURGE
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 8 FEET IN THE UPPER END OF
THE BAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF ALABAMA IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE...WITH
PEAK WINDS OF 130 TO 140 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHEN IVAN MAKES
LANDFALL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTREME DAMAGE
TO STRUCTURES NEAR THE COAST AND EXTENSIVE DAMAGE FURTHER
INLAND...ESPECIALLY TO MOBILE HOMES.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR MORE...HAVE ALREADY REACHED
THE COASTLINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AND SHOULD INCREASE
TO HURRICANE FORCE THIS EVENING.  THE COASTAL COUNTIES CAN EXPECT AN
ESTIMATED 25 TO 30 HOURS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH AND
ABOUT 10 TO 15 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.  THE WIND IMPACT WILL
ALSO BE VERY HIGH FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.  INLAND HURRICANE WIND
WARNINGS ARE ALSO NOW IN EFFECT AS COUNTIES VERY NEAR THE TRACK CAN
EXPERIENCE 5 TO 10 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS AND
COUNTIES FURTHER AWAY UP TO 5 HOURS.

...RIP CURRENT THREAT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.   RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8
TO 10 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING AS MUCH AS
15 INCHES OF RAIN.  IF IVAN SLOWS DOWN PRIOR TO AND\OR AFTER
LANDFALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EASILY APPROACH 20 INCHES IN A
FEW SPOTS.  FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY.  REMEMBER...
TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF THIS MAGNITUDE COMBINED WITH THESE EXPECTED
RAINFALL VALUES...WILL CREATE A CONDITION WHEREBY RIVERS WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO DRAIN AS NORMAL.  THUS...INLAND RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME A
MAJOR PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTER
IVAN PASSES.  PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING OR RECREATIONAL
BOATING UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF IVAN ARE NO LONGER AFFECTING THE REGION.

...TORNADO THREAT...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ALL
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.  TORNADOES ARE LIKELY
FROM NOW UNTIL IVAN MOVES INLAND AND INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
ALABAMA.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE WILL BEGIN SHORT TERM
FORECASTS EVERY 1 TO 3 HOURS UNTIL IVAN MOVES INLAND. HURRICANE
LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL ONLY BE ISSUED AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE. INSTEAD...PLEASE REFER TO THE SHORT TERM FORECASTS
(BHMNOWMOB) FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON IVAN FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MOBILE.

BEELER/CULLEN

$$







This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net