[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 152051
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF COLD EYEWALL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE...AND A CLEARING OUT OF
THE EYE. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 933 MB...AND THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK
WINDS AT 7000 FT OF 132 KT.  UNDERNEATH THAT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND THE
STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER REPORTED 108 KT.  IT APPEARS
THAT IVAN IS BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE WARM POOL OVER WHICH IT
HAS BEEN TRAVERSING TODAY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE NOT YET INCREASED
BUT MAY DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS EXIST JUST OFFSHORE...AND LITTLE NET CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

IVAN REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED
AT 355/12. THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST...WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED IN ABOUT 9 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IVAN
HAS A VERY LARGE WINDFIELD AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
MUCH SOONER THAN THAT.  THE ECMWF MODEL FINALLY GAVE UP ON A NEW
ORLEANS LANDFALL TODAY...RESULTING IN A WELL-CLUSTERED GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE UNTIL WELL AFTER LANDFALL...WHERE THERE ARE A VARIETY OF
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMNANTS OF IVAN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLOODING EVENT OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF IVAN CAN BE EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WELL INLAND...PERHAPS 150 MILES OR SO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/2100Z 28.4N  88.3W   115 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 30.2N  88.3W   115 KT...ON THE COASTLINE
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 32.2N  88.0W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 33.8N  87.2W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 35.0N  86.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 36.0N  84.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 36.0N  84.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED


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