[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 152051
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF COLD EYEWALL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE...AND A CLEARING OUT OF
THE EYE. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 933 MB...AND THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK
WINDS AT 7000 FT OF 132 KT.  UNDERNEATH THAT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND THE
STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER REPORTED 108 KT.  IT APPEARS
THAT IVAN IS BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE WARM POOL OVER WHICH IT
HAS BEEN TRAVERSING TODAY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE NOT YET INCREASED
BUT MAY DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS EXIST JUST OFFSHORE...AND LITTLE NET CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

IVAN REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED
AT 355/12. THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FN  84.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 36.0N  84.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED


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