[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 151035
HLSMOB
ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-151900-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...HIGH WIND IMPACT EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BEGINNING
LATER TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY...

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... AND
ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN
FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES
OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 AM CDT...THE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.5 N AND LONGITUDE 87.8 W...OR ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH OF
DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA.  IVAN WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR
12 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WHICH MAKES
IVAN A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.  WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY WILL OCCUR...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AT LEAST AS A CATEGORY 3.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR AREA (SEE DETAILS BELOW).

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
CRITICAL INFORMATION...A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR
RESIDENTS OF BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE LATEST CLOSINGS
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION AND/OR RADIO STATIONS.  THIS
INFORMATION IS BEING UPDATED BY THE LOCAL MEDIA AS THEY RECEIVE IT.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME...EVACUATIONS AND OTHER PERSONAL PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN TAKEN AND COMPLETED.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BY MIDDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER MOBILE BAY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL CAUSE A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET...AT A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...IF IVAN'S TRACK WERE TO SHIFT EVEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE
WEST...(SAY OVER MOBILE COUNTY)...THE STORM SURGE COULD BE IN THE 16
TO 18 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF THE BAY.  THE LATTER FIGURE INCLUDES
THE FACT THAT TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL.  ALSO GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK...THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA
...GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH WILL SHARE IN THE 8 TO 10 FEET SURGE
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY ARE TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK.  WITH REGARD
TO ESCAMBIA BAY...A GENERAL 4 TO 6 FEET WORTH OF SURGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 8 FEET IN THE UPPER END OF THE BAY.
SIGNIFICANT BUT LESSER FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COASTLINE BETWEEN PENSACOLA AND DESTIN.

REMEMBER...WHEN TIDE LEVELS RISE TO 3 FEET...THE CAUSEWAY AND THE
WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO FLOOD.  TIDE HEIGHTS OF 3
TO 4 FEET WILL ALSO FLOOD THE ROAD LEADING TO FORT PICKENS ON
PENSACOLA BEACH IN ESCAMBIA COUNTY. WATER LEVELS WITH HURRICANE IVAN
WILL LIKELY BE EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED IN
HURRICANE FREDERIC IN 1979.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF ALABAMA IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE...WITH
PEAK WINDS OF 130 TO 140 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHEN IVAN MAKES
LANDFALL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTREME DAMAGE
TO STRUCTURES NEAR THE COAST AND EXTENSIVE DAMAGE FURTHER
INLAND...ESPECIALLY TO MOBILE HOMES.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR MORE...SHOULD ARRIVE ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTS BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE...75 MPH OR HIGHER...LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  ONCE THE ONSET OF
IVAN'S WIND IMPACT BEGINS......THE COASTAL COUNTIES CAN EXPECT AN
ESTIMATED 32 TO 38 HOURS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND ABOUT 12
TO 16 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.  THE WIND IMPACT WILL ALSO BE
VERY HIGH FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.  INLAND HURRICANE WIND
WARNINGS ARE ALSO NOW IN EFFECT AS COUNTIES VERY NEAR THE TRACK CAN
EXPERIENCE 5 TO 10 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS AND
COUNTIES FURTHER AWAY UP TO 5 HOURS.

...RIP CURRENT THREAT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT LOCALLY FOR ALL AFFECTED COUNTIES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS (ESPECIALLY JUST EAST
OF IVAN'S TRACK).  IF IVAN SLOWS BOTH PRIOR TO AND\OR AFTER
LANDFALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EASILY APPROACH 20 INCHES ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS.  PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS OR
NEAR CREEKS OR STREAMS SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING UNTIL IVAN HAS
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.  FLOOD WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED
UNTIL THIS EVENING...BUT MAY BE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY. REMEMBER...
TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF THIS MAGNITUDE COMBINED WITH THESE EXPECTED
RAINFALL VALUES...WILL CREATE A CONDITION WHEREBY RIVERS WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO DRAIN AS NORMAL.  THUS...INLAND RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME A
MAJOR PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTER
IVAN PASSES.  PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING OR RECREATIONAL
BOATING UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF IVAN ARE NO LONGER AFFECTING THE REGION.

...TORNADO THREAT...

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY FROM EARLY MORNING ON AS THE OUTER
RAIN BANDS OF IVAN APPROACH...ESPECIALLY IN THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IVAN'S CENTER AS THE STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

...NEXT UPDATE...

AS IVAN APPROACHES...RECENT CHANGES IN INTENSITY...LOCATION AND
PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT LOCAL IMPACTS WILL BE PASSED ALONG IN THE
PRODUCT (BHMNOWMOB).  PLEASE REFER TO THIS PRODUCT OFTEN IN ADDITION
TO THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 1130 AM CDT.

MEDLIN

$$

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