[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 150538
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  51A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN
REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST
CATEGORY THREE.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES. A BUOY CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF IVAN IS REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO 83 MPH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 150 MILES NEAR THE PATH
OF IVAN.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.  WATER LEVELS ARE
ALREADY RUNNING UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST...AND WILL BE INCREASING TODAY.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...25.6 N... 87.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 934 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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