[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 150256
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS EARLIER IN
THE DAY. TWO DEEP CONVECTIVE AREAS ARE PRESENT WITH THE NORTHERN
MOST ONE BEING NEAR THE CENTER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...NOT UNUSUAL FOR A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
STORM. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOWS THAT A POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL CENTER MAY BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM A NEW CENTER AS THE
RADAR ALSO INDICATES SOME VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES TO THE NORTH
OF A POSSIBLE CENTER. T NUMBERS ARE UP FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND
GIVE 55 KT. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM THE INITIAL WINDS ARE HELD AT 50 KTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/07...A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT STILL
SUGGESTING THAT THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS HOLDING
STEADY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO THE SLOWER INITIAL
MOTION. IT CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND GUNS CONSENSUS.

SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST JEANNE TO INTENSIFY TO A
HURRICANE. A LOT OF THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH
THE SHIPS FORECASTS SAYS IS IMPROVING. I HAVE HELD THE SAME
INTENSITY FORECAST AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE UNTIL WE SEE IF THE
SYSTEM CAN GET RE-ORGANIZED.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0300Z 17.2N  64.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 17.7N  65.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 18.6N  67.1W    65 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.6N  68.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N  70.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  72.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 23.0N  74.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 25.0N  75.5W    75 KT


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