[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 141429
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

26.3N  88.0W      43  X  X  X 43   PENSACOLA FL       X 13  7  1 21
28.5N  88.5W       7 24  X  X 31   MOBILE AL          X 15  7  2 24
30.5N  88.5W       X 18  5  2 25   GULFPORT MS        X 19  5  1 25
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  2  2   BURAS LA           1 24  1  1 27
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  5  5   NEW ORLEANS LA     X 18  4  1 23
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  5  5   NEW IBERIA LA      X  8  6  2 16
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  4  4   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  4  3  7
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  2  2   GALVESTON TX       X  X  1  3  4
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  2  2   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  2  2
VENICE FL          X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 85W       X  6  4  3 13
TAMPA FL           X  X  1  2  3   GULF 29N 87W       2 20  1  1 24
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  2  4  6   GULF 28N 89W      13 19  1  X 33
ST MARKS FL        X  1  5  5 11   GULF 28N 91W       2 16  1  1 20
APALACHICOLA FL    X  4  6  3 13   GULF 28N 93W       X  3  3  1  7
PANAMA CITY FL     X  6  7  3 16   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7AM WED TO  7PM WED
C FROM  7PM WED TO  7AM THU
D FROM  7AM THU TO  7AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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