[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 141429
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

...IVAN WEAKENS...BUT REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE MEXICAN GOVERNMENT HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...
INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.  A HURRICANE WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 140
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS  932 MB...27.52 INCHES.

RAINS IN CUBA WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...23.4 N... 86.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 932 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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