[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 140838
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

26.0N  87.7W      40  1  X  X 41   PANAMA CITY FL     X  3 10  3 16
28.0N  88.3W       5 24  X  X 29   PENSACOLA FL       X  7 12  2 21
30.0N  88.0W       X 14  8  2 24   MOBILE AL          X  9 12  2 23
MUAN 219N 850W    99  X  X  X 99   GULFPORT MS        X 13  9  1 23
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  2  2   BURAS LA           X 21  3  1 25
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  3  3   NEW ORLEANS LA     X 14  6  2 22
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  6  6   NEW IBERIA LA      X  6  7  3 16
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  5  5   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  3  4  7
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  4  4   GALVESTON TX       X  X  1  3  4
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  2  2   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  2  2
FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 85W       X  4  7  3 14
VENICE FL          X  X  1  2  3   GULF 29N 87W       X 17  4  1 22
TAMPA FL           X  X  1  4  5   GULF 28N 89W       5 23  1  X 29
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  2  5  7   GULF 28N 91W       1 15  2  1 19
ST MARKS FL        X  X  6  6 12   GULF 28N 93W       X  2  3  2  7
APALACHICOLA FL    X  2  8  4 14   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM WED TO  2PM WED
C FROM  2PM WED TO  2AM THU
D FROM  2AM THU TO  2AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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