[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 140838
SPFAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  62.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST FRI SEP 17 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

18.5N  65.3W      51  X  X  X 51   MTCA 183N 738W     X  X  X  6  6
19.5N  67.1W      16 19  X  X 35   MUGM 200N 751W     X  X  X  6  6
20.4N  68.8W       X 20  7  1 28   TJSJ 184N 661W    40  1  X  X 41
TDPR 153N 614W    75  X  X  X 75   MDPP 198N 707W     X  3 14  4 21
80400 157N 636W   20  1  X  X 21   MBJT 215N 712W     X  1 14  6 21
TFFR 163N 615W    99  X  X  X 99   MYMM 224N 730W     X  X  3 13 16
TAPA 171N 618W    99  X  X  X 99   MYSM 241N 745W     X  X  X 10 10
TKPK 173N 627W    99  X  X  X 99   MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  X  7  7
TNCM 181N 631W    73  X  X  X 73   MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  X  2  2
TISX 177N 648W    58  X  X  X 58   MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  X  2  2
TIST 183N 650W    55  X  X  X 55   ST CROIX VI       58  X  X  X 58
TJPS 180N 666W    29  5  X  X 34   ST THOMAS VI      55  X  X  X 55
MDSD 185N 697W     X  9  9  2 20   SAN JUAN PR       40  1  X  X 41
MDCB 176N 714W     X  X  5  6 11   PONCE PR          29  5  X  X 34
MTPP 186N 724W     X  X  4  8 12

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM WED TO  2PM WED
C FROM  2PM WED TO  2AM THU
D FROM  2AM THU TO  2AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER JARVINEN


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