[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 140440
HLSMOB
ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-141100-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004

...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS
FLORIDA.  THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM MOBILE TO DESTIN...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...
SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES
IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
THE CENTER OF IVAN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND...OR NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST.  IVAN IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THE LATEST UP TO DATE EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE LATEST
CLOSINGS PLEASE WATCH LOCAL TELEVISION STATIONS. THIS INFORMATION
IS BEING UPDATED AS OFTEN AS IT IS RECEIVED. RESIDENTS WHO
PLAN ON EVACUATING SHOULD DO SO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  RESIDENTS
SHOULD SECURE ALL OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT COULD BECOME AIRBORNE AND
BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND.  AS IVAN MOVES CLOSER...WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE AND LOOSE OBJECTS COULD BE BLOWN THROUGH WINDOWS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TIDE LEVELS WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN START INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IVAN NEARS
LANDFALL THURSDAY MORNING.  STORM SURGE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 9 AND 13 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COASTLINE
AND 8 TO 11 FEET OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  WHEN VALUES
GET ABOVE 3 FEET THE CAUSEWAY BECOMES FLOODED AND THE WEST END OF
DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL ALSO FLOOD. 3 TO 4 FEET WILL ALSO FLOOD THE ROAD
LEADING TO FORT PICKENS ON PENSACOLA BEACH IN ESCAMBIA COUNTY.  IF
THE SURGE REACHES 8 TO 10 FEET PARTS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL BE
BREACHED AS WILL PARTS OF PENSACOLA BEACH. STORM SURGE VALUES OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL BE GREATER THAN OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA IN HURRICANE
OPAL IN 1995 AND HURRICANE GEORGE IN 1998. WE WILL BE IN NEAP TIDES
THURSDAY MORNING SO HIGH TIDE VALUES WILL NOT ADD MUCH TO THE SURGE
VALUES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH WINDS NEAR 160
MPH.  IVAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME BEFORE LANDFALL THURSDAY
MORNING BUT STILL COULD BE A LOW END OF A CATEGORY 4 OR A CATEGORY 3
WHICH WOULD BE THE STRONGEST HURRICANE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN OVER
TEN YEARS.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE ALONG THE
THE SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARRIVING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY AS IVAN MOVES INLAND.

...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS DUE TO HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO DESTIN. PEOPLE ARE
DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING OR RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL THE EFFECTS
OF IVAN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CENTER OF IVAN.  PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS OR
NEAR CREEKS OR STREAMS SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING UNTIL IVAN
HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.  REMEMBER TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

...TORNADO THREATS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF IVAN.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM
TUESDAY MORNING.

BEELER

$$

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