[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 140410 CCA
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ700-
750-755-770-775-140730-

HURRICANE IVAN LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1103 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

...IVAN ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...
...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FROM THE SAINT MARKS RIVER WEST
TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES.

IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...
BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...JACKSON.
..
JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA..
.WALTON...AND WASHINGTON.

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...
COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...
LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...
TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER AND WORTH.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE SAINT MARKS
RIVER TO DESTIN AND THEN WEST TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT (10 PM CDT)...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING THE HURRICANE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 914 MB...OR 26.99 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL INTERESTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IVAN. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS STORM AND BE PREPARED TO FOLLOW THE
ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD EVACUATION
ORDERS BE ISSUED. RESIDENCE ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BOARD UP WINDOWS
OR CONSIDER APPLYING STORM SHUTTERS. NOW THAT THE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE COAST...PREPARATIONS FOR STORM IMPACT SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AFFECTED RESIDENTS SHOULD STOCK UP ON
NECESSARY SUPPLIES SUCH AS DRINKING WATER...BATTERIES...NON
PERISHABLE FOOD ITEMS...AND PRESCRIPTION DRUGS. ALSO...BE SURE TO
HAVE A FULL TANK OF GAS AND PLENTY OF EXTRA CASH ON HAND. AREA
RESIDENTS SHOULD ALSO SECURE OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS AND
OUTDOOR FURNITURE THAT COULD BECOME AIRBORNE IN THE WIND.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING AREAS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...WITH 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ONE TO THREE INCH TOTALS FOR THE EASTERN BIG
BEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW LYING
AREAS...AND NEAR SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION...MAIN STEM
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. RAINFALL FROM
TROPICAL STORM FRANCIS GENERATED ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ON THE FLINT
RIVER AND KINCHAFOONEE AND MUCKALEE CREEKS. RAINFALL FROM FRANCIS
MOSTLY MISSED THE CHATTAHOOCHEE...PEA...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...
APALACHICOLA...AND CHIPOLA RIVER BASINS...WHERE FLOWS ARE STILL
RELATIVELY LOW. OF SPECIAL CONCERN IS THAT IVAN WILL BE ARRIVING
WHILE FLOWS ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH ON THE FLINT RIVER BASIN. THIS
WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RISES. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE FOLLOWING BASINS
COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY IVAN.

IN ALABAMA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVER BASINS.

IN GEORGIA...THE FLINT RIVER...KINCHAFOONEE CREEK...AND MUCKALEE
CREEK.

IN FLORIDA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...CHIPOLA...AND
OCHLOCKONEE RIVERS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MOBILE BAY AROUND SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...REACHING
THE PANHANDLE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TROPICAL FORCE
WINDS OVER-SPREADING PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND MOST OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE CORE OF INTENSE
HURRICANE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF DESTIN AT LANDFALL...
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EASTERN PANHANDLE
COAST COULD REACH 7 TO 9 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST FOR IVAN. AN EVEN HIGHER SURGE OF 10 TO 11 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE BAYS...INCLUDING WEST BAY...NORTH
BAY...AND SAINT JOSEPH BAY.

LOCAL TIDES OF INTEREST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

EAST PASS (DESTIN)...
HIGH TIDE...139 AM AND 1254 PM WEDNESDAY AND 1236 AM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...735 AM AND 859 PM WEDNESDAY AND 933 AM THURSDAY.

SAINT ANDREW BAY (PANAMA CITY)
HIGH TIDE...109 AM AND 1224 PM WEDNESDAY...AND 1206 AM AND 1152 PM
THURSDAY. LOW TIDE...504 AM AND 628 PM WEDNESDAY...AND 702 AM
THURSDAY.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDE...513 AM AND 513 PM WEDNESDAY...AND 524 AM AND 608 PM
THURSDAY. LOW TIDE...1146 AM AND 1134 PM WEDNESDAY...AND 1224 AM AND
1156 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT GEORGE ISLAND (SIKES CUT)...
HIGH TIDE...415 AM AND 415 PM WEDNESDAY...AND 426 AM AND 510 PM
THURSDAY. LOW TIDE...950 AM AND 1012 PM WEDNESDAY...AND 1024 AM AND
1034 PM THURSDAY.

OCHLOCKONNEE BAY...
HIGH TIDE...356 AM AND 401 PM WEDNESDAY...AND 416 AM AND 441 PM
THURSDAY. LOW TIDE...939 AM AND 958 PM WEDNESDAY...AND 1015 AM AND
1024 PM THURSDAY.

SHELL POINT...
HIGH TIDE...320 AM AND 325 PM WEDNESDAY...AND 340 AM AND 405 PM
THURSDAY. LOW TIDE...917 AM AND 936 PM WEDNESDAY...AND 953 AM AND
1002 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE...323 AM AND 328 PM WEDNESDAY...AND 343 AM AND 408 PM
THURSDAY. LOW TIDE...920 AM AND 939 PM WEDNESDAY...AND 956 AM AND
1005 PM THURSDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
STRONG RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER ALL THE
WAY AROUND TO DESTIN DUE TO INCREASED WAVE ACTION AND ONSHORE SWELLS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THE RIP CURRENT
THREAT WILL BE DEVELOPING EVEN EARLIER TO THE EAST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INCLUDING SAINT
GEORGE ISLAND. IN THIS AREA...EAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED
RIP CURRENT RISK BEGINNING TODAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA AROUND 3 AM EDT (2 AM CDT).

$$

WOOL/BLOCK



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