[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 132109
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG WITH SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO WARRANT THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES.  THERE IS
PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...HOWEVER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PATH OF THE DEPRESSION COULD INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 290/10.  A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND
HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST BY MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED NE-SW ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH
ATLANTIC.  THIS SCENARIO COULD CAUSE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/2100Z 16.0N  60.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.7N  62.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N  64.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 18.4N  66.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 19.4N  68.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 21.4N  71.3W    60 KT
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 23.0N  73.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     18/1800Z 24.0N  74.5W    60 KT


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