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WTNT34 KNHC 122345
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HEADING FOR WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO....
INCLUDING COZUMEL. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.8 WEST OR ABOUT  210 MILES...
340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR ON
MONDAY.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN END OF CUBA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IVAN IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE
INTENSITY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
IN PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
IVAN.  COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...19.5 N... 82.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
150 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

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