[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 121436
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN PASSING CLOSE TO GRAND CAYMAN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  81.5 WEST OR ABOUT   30 MILES...
45 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE
OVER...OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF...GRAND CAYMAN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS MAKES IVAN A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.  HAM RADIO REPORTS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 50 TO 60 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 110 MPH...HAVE BEEN
MEASURED ON GRAND CAYMAN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  919 MB...27.14 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
IN PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
IVAN.  COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...19.0 N... 81.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 919 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


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