[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 111448
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

19.6N  81.0W      47  X  X  X 47   JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  8  8
21.0N  82.0W      23  9  1  X 33   SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  3  3
22.8N  83.0W       X 20  7  1 28   KEY WEST FL        X  5 15  2 22
MKJS 185N 779W    99  X  X  X 99   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X 11  7 18
MWCG 193N 814W    42  X  X  X 42   FT MYERS FL        X  X  7 10 17
MUCM 214N 779W     3  2  X  1  6   VENICE FL          X  X  5 13 18
MUCF 221N 805W     9 14  X  1 24   TAMPA FL           X  X  2 14 16
MUSN 216N 826W     7 22  1  X 30   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X 14 14
MUHA 230N 824W     X 20  7  1 28   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X 13 13
MUAN 219N 850W     X 10  9  2 21   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X 14 14
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  1  3  3  7   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X 14 14
MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  1  2  3   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X 11 11
MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  1  2  3   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  8  8
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  1  5  6   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  7  7
MARATHON FL        X  4 12  3 19   BURAS LA           X  X  X  6  6
MIAMI FL           X  X  7  6 13   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  4  4
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  3  8 11   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X 16 16
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  1  9 10   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X 14 14
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  1  9 10   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  9  9
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X 10 10   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  3  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM SUN TO  8PM SUN
C FROM  8PM SUN TO  8AM MON
D FROM  8AM MON TO  8AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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