[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 111446
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

...EYE OF THE HURRICANE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
JAMAICA...STRONG WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ADJUSTED THEIR
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE EYE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES...50 KM SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA AND 190
MILES...305 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR  8
MPH...13 KM/HR LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...IVAN SHOULD MOVE NEAR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED...BUT IVAN COULD
BECOME STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  925 MB...27.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 FEET...
LOCALLY HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N... 78.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 925 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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