[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 110855
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

...EYE OF IVAN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO CRUZ TO CIENFUEGOS.  TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA FROM
SATIAGO DE CUBA TO CIENFUEGOS.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS DISCONTINUED FOR HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.0 WEST.  THIS POSITION IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA AND ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...SOUTH
OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

AFTER A WOBBLE TOWARD THE WEST...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...IVAN SHOULD MOVE NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED...BUT IVAN COULD
BECOME STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  923 MB...27.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 78.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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