[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 110845
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

19.3N  80.1W      48  X  X  X 48   JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  7  7
20.6N  81.4W      21 12  X  X 33   SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  2  2
22.0N  82.5W       X 23  4  1 28   KEY WEST FL        X  2 14  5 21
MKJP 179N 768W    99  X  X  X 99   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  7 10 17
MKJS 185N 779W    99  X  X  X 99   FT MYERS FL        X  X  4 12 16
MWCG 193N 814W    31  1  1  X 33   VENICE FL          X  X  2 14 16
MUCM 214N 779W     7  5  X  1 13   TAMPA FL           X  X  1 13 14
MUCF 221N 805W     4 20  1  1 26   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X 12 12
MUSN 216N 826W     1 24  2  1 28   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X 10 10
MUHA 230N 824W     X 14  9  2 25   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X 11 11
MUAN 219N 850W     X  4 12  3 19   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X 10 10
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  X  3  4  7   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  7  7
MYAK 241N 776W     X  1  1  3  5   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  4  4
MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  1  3  4   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  3  3
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  1  6  7   BURAS LA           X  X  X  3  3
MARATHON FL        X  2 12  5 19   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  2  2
MIAMI FL           X  X  5  9 14   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X 13 13
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  2  9 11   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X 10 10
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  1  9 10   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  6  6
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X 10 10   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  2  2
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  9  9

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
C FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
D FROM  2AM MON TO  2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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