[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 091452
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  71.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM AST SUN SEP 12 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

17.0N  75.2W      46  X  X  X 46   MYSM 241N 745W     X  X  1  2  3
18.5N  77.3W       5 28  X  X 33   MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  3  5  8
19.5N  79.0W       X 19  6  2 27   MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  4  7 11
MDCB 176N 714W     3  X  X  X  3   MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  1  7  8
MTPP 186N 724W     7  2  X  X  9   MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  X  5  5
MTCA 183N 738W    29  1  X  X 30   MARATHON FL        X  X  1 12 13
MKJP 179N 768W    18 17  X  1 36   MIAMI FL           X  X  X 10 10
MKJS 185N 779W     2 28  X  X 30   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X  7  7
MWCG 193N 814W     X  2 12  5 19   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  5  5
MUGM 200N 751W     3 18  X  1 22   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  3  3
MUCM 214N 779W     X 10 10  2 22   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  2  2
MUCF 221N 805W     X  X 13  7 20   KEY WEST FL        X  X  1 12 13
MUSN 216N 826W     X  X  6 11 17   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X  9  9
MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  3 13 16   FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  7  7
MUAN 219N 850W     X  X  X  9  9   VENICE FL          X  X  X  6  6
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  X  X  3  3   TAMPA FL           X  X  X  4  4
MYMM 224N 730W     X  X  1  1  2   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM FRI TO  8PM FRI
C FROM  8PM FRI TO  8AM SAT
D FROM  8AM SAT TO  8AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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