[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 091451
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HEADING FOR JAMAICA AND THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
BARAHONA PENINSULA FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES.  A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS
EASTWARD.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...
AND CURACAO AND ALL WARNINGS FOR VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  71.4 WEST OR ABOUT  430 MILES...
695 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON
FRIDAY.

IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WIT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160
MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  920 MB...27.17 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...14.5 N... 71.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 920 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

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