[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT45 KNHC 090832
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 365 NMI SOUTHWEST OF
THE AZORES ISLANDS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND IN
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN. AT 09/00Z...SHIP FQFM LOCATED 120 NMI NORTH...AND SHIP FQWZ
LOCATED 140 NMI EAST...OF THE CENTER REPORTED 20-KT SURFACE WINDS
AND SEAS RANGING FROM 13-19 FEET. BOTH REPORTS WERE OUTSIDE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...A 08/2131Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED
25-30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON
THIS INFORMATION AND A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT
FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/09. T.D. TEN IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...WHICH ALL OF THE
MODELS MAINTAIN FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS
THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT
...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED
BY A LARGER EXTRATOPICAL LOW AND/OR FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS BY 72-96 HOURS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE
AZORES. HOWEVER...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IN
SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE BURSTS THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT THE OVERALL SHEAR PATTERN AND
RELATIVELY COOL SSTS FAVOR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 35 KT AND 43 KT IN
12- AND 24-HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/0900Z 35.8N  34.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 36.6N  32.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 37.2N  31.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 37.8N  28.9W    30 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 38.3N  26.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 39.5N  23.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM


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