[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 090603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU 09 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...135 KM...NORTHEAST OF ARUBA IN THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 570 MILES...915 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 125 KT GUSTS
155 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB. SEE LATEST
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF HURRICANE IVAN FROM
14N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W. MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. THE EYE IS
CLEARLY DEFINED. IT IS LOCATED EAST OF A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH IVAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IVAN SHOULD REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MARCHES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH IVAN DURING THE
 DAYS. IVAN SHOULD REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT
MARCHES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W/93W JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF 97W TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 14N17W 10N27W 9N40W 7N50W 14N64W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 10N72W 10N80W AND 9N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 10W AND 18W...FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL GLFMEX EXTENDING SWD FROM T.D FRANCES NOW OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH SUPPRESSING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SAVE A SMALL AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER. DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
AREA...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART...TO 25N96W IN THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF WATERS. THE MID-UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA WILL
BUILD WESTWARD PROVIDING AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FORMATION
OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN BAND OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO BY FRI MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
26N84W TO 23N87W TO 20N90W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BIGGEST SHOW IN TOWN IS HURRICANE IVAN. THE MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO CREATE
A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A LARGE SCALE RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES MOST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM FLORIDA NEWD ALONG THE UNITED STATES
EAST COAST...MID-OCEANIC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 35N45W SOUTHWARD
TO THE S BAHAMAS...AND RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC E OF 40W.  ASIDE
FROM CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS
FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF 31N63W 23N55W BEYOND 31N41W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N ON EITHER SIDE THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE
GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC DURING NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE
TRAILING END OF THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH GRADUALLY RETROGRADING
WEST AS AN UPPER LOW FORMS NEAR 25N55W AND BECOMES CUT OFF.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SWD OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA
E OF 35W. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 35W-50W IS PRODUCING
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ITCZ/TROPICAL WAVE CONVECTION. FURTHER W...A WEAK MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 52W IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO ITS
WEST SUPPRESSING ITCZ ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST.

$$
MT

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