[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 081747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED 08 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IVAN IS CENTERED NEAR 12.7N 66.2W AT 08/1500 UTC WHICH
IS ABOUT 145 MILES ENE OF BONAIRE. IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE W AT
14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145
KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB. SEE
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

IVAN HAS A CLEARLY DEFINED EYE AT THIS TIME WITH UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW LOOKING GOOD EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE RESTRICTION TO THE W
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER.
RAINBANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
IVAN COVER THE AREA FROM FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 17N
BETWEEN 60W-70W INCLUDING TRINIDAD...TOBAGO AND MUCH OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR E ATLC IS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 17N JUST E
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W 10 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 24W AND
24N-27N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ALONG 42W S OF 18N MOVING W
10 KT. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS OVER GUATEMALA S OF 18N
ALONG 92W MOVING W 10 KT.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N17W 5N26W 12N42W 5N52W 11N61W THEN BECOMES
DISTORTED BY HURRICANE IVAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 28W-37W.
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 30N89W TO 25N95W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SURFACE AIR IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N W OF 85W...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
GULF OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WSW ALONG 27N93W TO TO INLAND
DOVER THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 25N98W. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED E OF JACKSONVILLE
NEAR 30N79W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NW YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED S OVER THE W ATLC
INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON IVAN. ELSEWHERE LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N79W IS PRODUCING
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF 75W. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS ALLOWING
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO MIGRATE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N50W TO 27N63W. A 90 NM
BAND OF SUBSIDENCE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH A 120-150 NM WIDE
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SE  OF TROUGH AXIS.
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N37W N TO BEYOND 32N31W. TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC N OF
15N E OF 25W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. THIS GENERAL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC
STARTING IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
14N58W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO 18N53W. A SECOND UPPER
RIDGE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
DGS






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