[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 080835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES.

AT 5 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST OF HAITI LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  64.8 WEST OR ABOUT  210 MILES...
340 KM...WEST OF GRENADA. THIS ALSO ABOUT 235 MILES...380 KM...
EAST OF BONAIRE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN NORTH OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE ISLANDS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS IS ESTIMATED TO BE 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN..

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N... 64.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


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