[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 080609
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004

CORRECTED INITIAL POSITION...DISTANCE...AND CENTRAL PRESSURE

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON WEDNESDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  64.1 WEST OR ABOUT  285 MILES...
455 KM...EAST OF BONAIRE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.  A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN NORTH OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
CLOSE TO THOSE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ASSESSING THE STRENGTH OF IVAN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  946 MB...27.93 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN..

REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...12.3 N... 64.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


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