[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 080558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED 08 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IVAN IS CENTERED NEAR 12.3N 64.3W AT 08/0600 UTC WHICH
IS ABOUT 270 MILES E OF BONAIRE. IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AT
15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140
KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB. SEE
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. IVAN CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A CLASSIC SATELLITE
SIGNATURE COMPLETE WITH INTENSE CONVECTION NEARLY SYMMETRIC
ABOUT A CLEARLY DEFINED PIN-HOLE EYE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS
BETTER TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE RESTRICTION TO THE WEST DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THIS LOW IS
BEGINNING TO RETREAT WESTWARD LEAVING IVAN WITHIN A
DIVERGENT/FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. OUTER
RAINBANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N-15N TO JUST INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
BETWEEN 60W-65W INCLUDING TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. HE RAINS ARE MOVING W OF BARBADOS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR E ATLC IS WAS INTRODUCED ALONG 23W/24W
S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LINE OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF
12N FROM 20W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 18N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN FROM 11N-18N
BETWEEN 39W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS NOW OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 90W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN N OF GUATEMALA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N10W 7N26W 9N36W 6N48W 12N60W THEN BECOMES
DISTORTED BY HURRICANE IVAN. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 23W-37W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N38W-6N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES IS NOW MOVING NE
ACROSS N GEORGIA WITH A NEAR STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAILING SW OVER THE W GULF ALONG 30N90W TO 23N95W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SURFACE AIR IS OVER E ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
INTO ALABAMA AND SE INTO THE NW GULF. FURTHER E...MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED E OF
JACKSONVILLE NEAR 30N80W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
AND SURFACE DRY AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPRESSING ALL BUT
SOME LOW ISOLATED SHOWERS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED S
OVER THE W ATLC AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 24N W OF 67W.
THE W GULF UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 34 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA BUILDS
WESTWARD IN ITS WAKE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BIGGEST FEATURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS HURRICANE IVAN WHICH
IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN MOVING W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON IVAN. ELSEWHERE...LARGE MID/
UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 15N76W CONTINUES
TO CREATE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE PERIMETER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE YUCATAN IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM W CUBA S OVER NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI WITHIN A 75/90 NM RADIUS OF 19N73W.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE S OF 10.5N FROM OVER LAKE
MARACAIBO TO OVER COSTA RICA. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS ALLOWING
UNSETTLED WEATHER CURRENTLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO MIGRATE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC...
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...RIDGE...
TROUGH PATTERN. TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 25N FROM
38W-65W...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N34W N TO BEYOND 32N31W...AND TROUGH OVER
THE E ATLC N OF 16N E OF 28W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. ASSOCIATED
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N42W EXTENDING W
ALONG 31N51W TO BEYOND 33N61W AND A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 32N40W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG
26N40W TO 22N50W. THIS GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING
CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC STARTING IN ABOUT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A LOW AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 11N55W WITH A RIDE AXIS EXTENDING N TO 21N48W. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N34W.

$$
WALLACE



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