[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 080231
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE SEP 07 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...NEW HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.  A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT...
THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAVE
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON WEDNESDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  63.3 WEST OR ABOUT  110 MILES...
175 KM...WEST OF GRENADA.  THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 335 MILES...
540 KM...EAST OF BONAIRE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.  A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN NORTH OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
CLOSE TO THOSE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN..

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...12.1 N... 63.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


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