[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 070243
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON SEP 06 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  57.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM AST THU SEP  9 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

12.7N  62.9W      48  1  X  X 49   TIST 183N 650W     X  2  4  1  7
13.7N  66.1W       1 32  1  X 34   TJPS 180N 666W     X  2 10  2 14
14.7N  69.1W       X  4 22  X 26   MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  7 10 17
SKPG 125N 717W     X  X  5  6 11   MDCB 176N 714W     X  X  6 16 22
TNCC 122N 690W     X  4 11  X 15   MTPP 186N 724W     X  X  1 18 19
SVMG 110N 640W    11  8  X  X 19   MTCA 183N 738W     X  X  X 20 20
TTPP 106N 614W    19  X  X  X 19   MKJP 179N 768W     X  X  X 14 14
TTPT 112N 608W    48  X  X  X 48   MKJS 185N 779W     X  X  X 11 11
TGPY 120N 618W    54  X  X  X 54   MUGM 200N 751W     X  X  X 15 15
TBPB 131N 595W    71  X  X  X 71   MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  X  6  6
TVSV 131N 612W    62  X  X  X 62   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  2  7  1 10
TLPL 138N 610W    51  X  X  X 51   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  1 12 13
TFFF 146N 610W    30  X  X  X 30   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  X  6  6
TDPR 153N 614W    15  3  X  X 18   MYMM 224N 730W     X  X  X  4  4
80400 157N 636W    6 19  X  X 25   MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  X  2  2
TFFR 163N 615W     3  2  X  X  5   ST CROIX VI        X  5  5  X 10
TAPA 171N 618W     1  1  X  X  2   ST THOMAS VI       X  2  4  1  7
TKPK 173N 627W     X  3  1  X  4   SAN JUAN PR        X  2  7  1 10
TNCM 181N 631W     X  1  1  X  2   PONCE PR           X  2 10  2 14
TISX 177N 648W     X  5  5  X 10

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM TUE TO  8AM WED
C FROM  8AM WED TO  8PM WED
D FROM  8PM WED TO  8PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HENNON


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