[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 070243
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON SEP 06 2004

..DANGEROUS IVAN MAINTAINS INTENSITY...NEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...TOBAGO...AND GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
335 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33 KM/HR.  IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  963 MB...28.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED AS IVAN PASSES
THROUGH THE ISLANDS.  THIS CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND DANGEROUS
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.2 N... 57.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HENNON


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