[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 061755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON 06 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES IS CENTERED AT 30.1N 84.1W NEAR ST. MARKS
FLORIDA ON 06/1800 UTC ...MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 7 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. FRANCES REMAINS A LARGE STORM WITH
TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTENDING OUT 75 NM FROM THE CENTER. BANDS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 26N-33N
BETWEEN 78W-85W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

HURRICANE IVAN IS CENTERED NEAR 11.2N 53.4W AT 06/1500 UTC
...MOVING WEST AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT MAKING IVAN A CATEGORY 3 STORM. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
IVAN COULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN TO A CATEGORY 4 STORM OR HIGHER. THE
FIRST WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS DUE INTO THE HURRICANE
SHORTLY.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 31W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 27W-34W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 82W S OF 18N MOVING W 10
KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 75W-80W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 18N10W 12N20W 6N37W 10N48W 8N60W 10N75W
10N85W. SEE HURRICANE IVAN AND TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA
WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 10.5N17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF 7N
FROM 11W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
T.S. FRANCES IS THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE SE UNITED STATES
AND THE N GULF N OF 29N WHICH IS LIMITING THE OUTFLOW OF FRANCES
ON THE NW SIDE. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
T.S. FRANCES ENE TO BEYOND 32N67W AND SW TO 26N88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W IS THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  HURRICANE IVAN IS FAST APPROACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM T.S.
FRANCES COVERS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NE FLOW W OF
75W.  MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N65W
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE COVER S THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-75W. A
1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N43W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 24N48W 22N57W. A 1028 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N24W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S
TO 22N25W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 15N53W TO BEYOND 37N35W.  A TROUGH WITH
TWO EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
34N24W...AND 26N28W.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE...AND HURRICANE IVAN SECTIONS ABOVE.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
NEAR 16N12W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO 15N30W.

$$
FORMOSA




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