[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 061450
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON SEP 06 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  53.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM AST THU SEP  9 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

12.7N  59.5W      50  1  X  X 51   TISX 177N 648W     X  X 15  4 19
13.7N  62.7W       1 33  X  1 35   TIST 183N 650W     X  X 10  7 17
15.0N  65.5W       X  5 21  X 26   TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  9 11 20
SKPG 125N 717W     X  X  X  3  3   MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  X 20 20
TNCC 122N 690W     X  X  2  4  6   MDCB 176N 714W     X  X  X 19 19
SVMG 110N 640W     X  5  3  X  8   MTPP 186N 724W     X  X  X 17 17
TTPP 106N 614W     3  6  X  X  9   MTCA 183N 738W     X  X  X 14 14
TTPT 112N 608W    12  9  X  X 21   MKJP 179N 768W     X  X  X  3  3
TGPY 120N 618W     6 21  X  1 28   MKJS 185N 779W     X  X  X  2  2
TBPB 131N 595W    50  2  X  X 52   MUGM 200N 751W     X  X  X  8  8
TVSV 131N 612W    17 23  X  X 40   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  8 10 18
TLPL 138N 610W    17 25  X  X 42   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  X 17 17
TFFF 146N 610W     8 29  X  X 37   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  X 10 10
TDPR 153N 614W     2 28  1  X 31   MYMM 224N 730W     X  X  X  5  5
80400 157N 636W    X 17 11  X 28   ST CROIX VI        X  X 15  4 19
TFFR 163N 615W     X 18  3  X 21   ST THOMAS VI       X  X 10  7 17
TAPA 171N 618W     X  8  7  1 16   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  8 10 18
TKPK 173N 627W     X  5 11  1 17   PONCE PR           X  X  9 11 20
TNCM 181N 631W     X  1 10  2 13

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM TUE TO  8PM TUE
C FROM  8PM TUE TO  8AM WED
D FROM  8AM WED TO  8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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