[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 061424
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR
INDICATE THAT FRACNES HAS NOT CHANGED IN STRUCTURE AND STILL
CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION WITHOUT AN INNER CORE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE
CYCLONE TO INCREASE 10 MORE KNOTS AND BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN KEPT FOR A
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 7
KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE LARGE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY. FRANCES SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST UNTIL
ABSORBED A FRONT IN 96 HOURS.

FRANCES IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/1500Z 29.5N  84.0W    55 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 30.5N  84.7W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 32.0N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 33.5N  85.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 35.0N  85.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 40.0N  81.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     10/1200Z...ABSORBED


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