[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 061159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON 06 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES IS CENTERED NEAR 29.1 83.6 OR ABOUT 110
MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AT 06/1200 UTC
...DRIFTING NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. FRANCES
REMAINS A VERY LARGE STORM WITH TROPICAL STORM WINDS EXTENDING
OUT 200 NM FROM THE CENTER. BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 77W-87W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

HURRICANE IVAN IS CENTERED NEAR 11.1N 52.6W AT 06/1200 UTC
...MOVING WEST AT 18 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT MAKING IVAN A CATEGORY 3 STORM. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
IVAN COULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN TO A CATEGORY 4 STORM OR HIGHER.
ALTHOUGH IVAN IS EMBEDDED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE... SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM IN THE E QUADRANT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A
90/120 NM RADIUS OF 6N34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM
9N33W-14N30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 18N MOVING
W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 13N77W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO 10N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 75W-79W
INCLUDING JAMAICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 17N10W 10N20W 4N34W 11N45W 7N58W 10N70W.
SEE HURRICANE IVAN AND TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA
WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 10.5N17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF 7N
FROM 11W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE SE UNITED STATES AND THE N GULF N
OF 29N WHICH IS LIMITING THE OUTFLOW OF FRANCES ON THE NW SIDE.
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER T.S. FRANCES
ENE TO BEYOND 32N67W AND SW TO 26N88W. OVER THE GULF...THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N E OF 88W. A SMALL WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS DEVELOPED SW OF FRANCES NEAR 23N87W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR COVERS THE GULF W OF
90W AND S OF 24N FROM 84W-90W WHICH LIMITING SHOWERS TO ONLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OUTFLOW FROM T.S.
FRANCES COVERS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NE FLOW W OF
72W. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N65W WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N TO OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER FRANCES ENE TO BEYOND 32N67W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF 25N W OF 60W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC TO N OF 27N FROM 42W-57W.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N44W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 24N47W. LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER HURRICANE IVAN PRODUCING GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N40W NE TO BEYOND 32N36W. WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED IN THE E ATLC NEAR 26N28W WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW 350/400 NM OF THE CENTER.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 15N15W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW E OF 22W.

$$
WALLACE



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